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Publications - Election 1997
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Unsteady State: The 1997 Canadian Federal Election
Neil Nevitte, André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil, Richard
Nadeau (2000)
How did the 1997 Canadian Federal Election differ from those that
have come before it? Had the country’s demographics changed
dramatically enough to flummox pollsters and the parties? Are we
headed toward American-style politics as candidate campaigns become
highly charged and even more personal? Neil Nevitte, André
Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil and Richard Nadeau examine what worked,
what didn’t and why for the four major parties and the independent
candidates in Unsteady State.
(Don Mills: Oxford University Press)
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Scientific articles / Articles scientifiques:
Explaining the Vote for Sub-State Nationalist
Parties: The SNP and the Bloc Québécois Compared
Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Political Studies Association,
Aberdeen, April 5-7, 2002
Cameron Anderson and Elisabeth Gidengil
Abstract:
This paper undertakes a systematic comparison of voting for the
Scottish National Party (SNP) and the Bloc Québécois.
The purpose is twofold. On the one hand, to see if a comparative
analysis can enhance our understanding of why some Scots and francophone
Quebeckers are drawn to these parties, while others are not. The
focus here is very much on the inter-party dynamics of support.
On the other hand, to assess the usefulness of a variety of theoretical
perspectives on the rise of sub-state nationalism for explaining
behaviour at the ballot box. Data are taken from the 1997 Scottish
Election Study and the 1997 Canadian Election Study.
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Are Party Leaders Becoming More Important to
Vote Choice in Canada?
Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political
Science Association, Washington DC, August 30 - September 3, 2000
Elisabeth Gidengil, André Blais, Neil Nevitte, Richard
Nadeau
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of leader and party evaluations on
vote choice in Canada over a thirty-year time period, from 1968
to 1997. It finds no support for the proposition that leaders have
become more important to the vote. Leader evaluations do have a
significant independent impact on vote choice, but leader effects
have not increased across time. There is also little evidence that
party effects have diminished. Levels of television exposure, campaign
interest and education have only a modest effect on the relative
weight of leader and party evaluations.
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Elections and Satisfaction with Democracy
Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political
Science Association, Washington D.C., August 30-September 3, 2000
Richard Nadeau, André Blais, Neil Nevitte, and Elisabeth
Gidengil
Abstract:
Democracy consists of a set of principles and rules that allow collectivities
to make decisions in an economical, predictable and peaceful manner.
Voters' satisfaction with democracy should therefore normally peak
in the post-electoral period, immediately after these principles
have been successfully put to the test. But is this really the case
? Does satisfaction with democracy increase in a significant manner
after an election ? And if it does, what factors lead individuals
to express greater satisfaction with the workings of democracy after
an election ? The 1997 Canadian Election Study allow us to draw
specific conclusions concerning the relationship between elections
and satisfaction with democracy, and the possible 'demonstration'
effect elections can have on citizens' post-election attitudes towards
the workings of democracy. Our findings show that the level of satisfaction
with democracy increases in a noticeable manner after an election,
but apparently not during the campaign. Moreover, this increase
appears linked less to the election specific result (the re-election
of the incumbent government) than to its general result of electing
a legitimate government.
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Women to the Left, Men to the Right? Gender
and Voting in the 1997 Canadian Election
Paper presented at the 18th World Congress of the International
Political Science Association, Quebec City, August 1-5, 2000
Elisabeth Gidengil, André Blais, Neil Nevitte, Richard
Nadeau
Abstract:
The first part of the paper examines trends in the gender gap in
Canada between 1965 and 1997. We demonstrate that Canada presents
a clear case of gender realignment. The gender gap in Reform voting
in the 1993 and 1997 elections provides compelling evidence that
men have been more likely than women to move to the right. Female
support for the NDP increased in the late 1970s and 1980s, but the
more important reason for the emergence of a gender gap in support
for the left in the 1990s was that women were less likely than men
to move away from the NDP. The second part of the paper tests possible
explanations of the gender gaps on both the left and the right.
We broaden the scope of gender gap research to consider both female-centered
and male-centered interpretations. Overall, we found more support
for socio-psychological explanations than for explanations that
emphasized structural and situational.
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Socio-Economic Status and Non-Voting : A Cross-National
Comparative Analysis
Paper presented at the 18th World Congress of the International
Political Science Association, Quebec City, August 1-5, 2000
Neil Nevitte, André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil, Richard
Nadeau
Abstract:
This study examines the relationship between socio-economic status
and non-voting using data from the first module of the Comparative
Study of Electoral Systems project,. SES influences non-voting in
all countries included in the first module, regardless of economic,
political or institutional characteristics. The strength and patterns
of the relationship between SES and non-voting vary cross-nationally.
The main finding is that four SES variables are consistently related
to non-voting even after contextual factors, like economic conditions,
electoral history (whether a new or consolidated democracies), electoral
rules, and party systems are taken into account, low SES is still
associated with non-voting.
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Do Trained and Untrained Coders Perceive Electoral
Coverage Differently?
Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political
Science Association, Boston, September 3-6, 1998
Richard Nadeau, Elisabeth Gidengil, Neil Nevitte, André
Blais
Abstract:
Trained and untrained coders' assessments of TV coverage of parties
during the 1997 Canadian election are compared. Untrained coders'
perceptions are more positive than those of trained coders and can
be colored by partisan and personal predispositions. Despite these
perceptual screens, both trained and untrained coders' assessments
exhibit similar dynamics during the campaign.
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Issue Importance and Performance Voting
Political Behavior, 25:51-67
Patrick Fournier, Richard Nadeau, André Blais, Elisabeth
Gidengil, Neil Nevitte (2003)
Abstract:
Issue importance mediates the impact of public policy issues on
electoral decisions (Krosnick, 1988, 1990). Individuals who consider
that an issue is important are more likely to rely on their attitudes
toward that issue when evaluating candidates and deciding whom to
vote for. The logic behind the link between issue importance and
issue voting should translate to a link between issue importance
and performance voting. Incumbent performance evaluations regarding
an issue should have a stronger impact on the vote choice of individuals
who find that issue important. The analysis demonstrates that there
is a significant interaction between performance evaluations and
issue importance. People concerned about an issue assign more weight
to their evaluations of the government on that issue when making
up their mind.
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Election Campaigns as Information Campaigns:
Who Learns What and with What Effect?
Richard Nadeau, Neil Nevitte, Elisabeth Gidengil, André
Blais
Abstract:
During election campaigns political parties compete to inform voters
about their leaders, the issues, and where they stand on these issues.
In that sense, election campaigns can be viewed as a particular
kind of information campaign. Democratic theory supposes that participatory
democracies are better served by an informed electorate rather than
an uninformed one. But do all voters make equal information gains
during campaigns? Why do some people make more information gains
than others? And does the acquisition of campaign information have
any impact on vote intentions? Drawing on the combined insights
from political science research, communications theory and social
psychology, we develop specific hypotheses about these campaign
information dynamics. These hypotheses are tested with data from
the 1997 Canadian Election Study, which includes a rolling cross-national
campaign component, a post-election component, and a media content
analysis. The results show that some people do make more information
gains than others; campaigns produce a knowledge gap. Further, the
intensity of media signals on different issues has an important
impact on who receives what information and information gains have
a significant impact on vote intentions.
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Do Party Supporters Differ?
Published in Joanna Everitt and Brenda O'Neill (eds.), Citizen Politics:
Research and Theory in Canadian Political Behaviour, Don Mills:
Oxford University Press, p.184-201
André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil, Richard Nadeau, Neil Nevitte
(2002)
Abstract:
There is a debate, in Canada as elsewhere, about whether parties
really make a difference. Much of the literature on this question
looks at whether policies and spending differ according to the partisan
composition of governments. The approach adopted here is different.
Using survey data from the 1997 Canadian Election Study, we examine
the extent to which each party's voters differ in their views on
the major issues of the day.
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The Impact of Issues and the Economy in the
1997 Canadian Federal Election
Published in Canadian Journal of Political Science, 35: 409-421
André Blais, Richard Nadeau, Elisabeth Gidengil, Neil Nevitte
(2002)
Abstract:
The article examines the impact of issues and the economy in the
1997 Canadian election among voters outside Quebec. We show that
both factors affected individual vote choice. We provide estimates
of how much difference the issues and the economy made in the election.
It appears that the issues were decisive for nine per cent of the
voters and the economy for four per cent. Issues mattered more than
the economy for individual vote choice. The net impact of both the
issues and the economy on vote support for the different parties
was practically nil. The findings indicate that the Liberal victory
cannot be imputed to the economy or the issues.
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Changes in the Party System and Anti-Party
Sentiment
Published in William Cross (ed.), Political Parties, Representation,
and Electoral Democracy in Canada, Don Mills: Oxford University
Press, p.68-86
Elisabeth Gidengil, André Blais, Richard Nadeau, Neil Nevitte
(2002)
Abstract:
This chapter examines whether the emergence of two new parties in
the 1993 election helped to restore Canadians' confidence in the
health and viability of political parties. We conclude that the
answer has to be different for Quebec and for Canada outside Quebec.
Outside Quebec, there is little evidence to suggest that the trend
toward increasing disaffection with political parties has been halted.
Turnout has declined sharply since 1988, the proportion of people
who lack any residual sense of party identification has grown, and
feelings about political parties as a whole have gone from being
lukewarm or neutral, on average, to being clearly negative. In Quebec,
on the other hand, the option of voting for a sovereignist party
in federal elections has clearly helped to check anti-partyism.
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Priming and Campaign Context: Evidence from
Recent Canadian Elections
Published in David Farrell and Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck (eds.),
Do Political Campaigns Matter? Campaign Effects in Elections and
Referendums, London: Routledge
Elisabeth Gidengil, André Blais, Neil Nevitte, Richard
Nadeau (2002)
Abstract:
This paper uses data from the 1988, 1993 and 1997 Canadian Election
Studies to examine the priming effect of election campaigns. We
demonstrate that campaigns clearly do affect the bases on which
people decide their vote. These priming effects vary, though, depending
on the nature of the campaign. We conclude that issue priming may
be the exception rather than the norm, occurring only when new and
dramatic issues dominate the campaign. This was the case in the
1988 election. In the absence of a single dominant issue, the priming
of leadership is the more typical campaign effect, reflecting the
leader-centered nature of campaign coverage. In both 1993 and 1997,
leader evaluations became more important to the vote as the campaign
progressed and as media consumption increased. The more leadership
was primed, the less important party identification became to the
vote.
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Measuring Party Identification: Britain, Canada,
and the United States
Published in Political Behavior, 23: 5-22
André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil, Richard Nadeau, Neil Nevitte
(2001)
Abstract:
The paper proposes an empirically based reflection on how to measure
party identification cross-nationally, using data from the 1997
Canadian Election Study, the 1997 British Election Study, and the
1996 American National Election Study. These studies included both
traditional national questions and a new common one, which allows
for an assessment of the effects of question wording on the distribution
and correlates of party identification. We show that the distribution
of party identification is strongly affected by question wording
and that the relationship between party identification and variables
such as party and leader ratings, voting behavior, and age does
not quite conform to theoretical expectations. We point out problems
in the wording of party identification questions and propose an
alternative formulation.
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The Formation of Party Preferences: Testing
the Proximity and Directional Models
Published in European Journal of Political Research, 40: 81-91
André Blais, Richard Nadeau, Elisabeth Gidengil, Neil Nevitte
(2001)
Abstract:
We review the methodological debate between defenders of the proximity
and directional models. We propose what we believe to be a rigorous
and fair test of the two models, using the 1997 Canadian Election
Study. The analysis is based on responses to questions in which
the various issue positions are explicitly spelled out. We rely
on individual perceptions of party positions because it is individual
perceptions that matter in the formation of party preferences but
we control for projection effects through a multivariate model that
incorporates, in addition to indicators of distance and direction,
socio-demographic characteristics, party identification, and leader
ratings. We also take into account whether a party is perceived
to be extreme. The empirical evidence vindicates the proximity model.
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Measuring Strategic Voting in Multiparty Plurality
Elections
Published in Electoral Studies, 20: 343-352
André Blais, Richard Nadeau, Elisabeth Gidengil, Neil Nevitte
(2001)
Abstract:
We propose a method for measuring strategic voting in multiparty
plurality elections, and we apply that method to the 1997 Canadian
election. The first stage of the inquiry determines whether voters'
expectations about the outcome of the election have an independent
effect on vote choice, after controlling their preferences, more
specifically their party identification and evaluations of parties
and leaders. We show that in the 1997 Canadian election perceptions
of the local race in the constituency did affect the vote, but not
perceptions of the race for who would form the government and the
official opposition. The second stage of the analysis consists in
assessing for each respondent whether her vote was sincere or strategic:
a respondent is deemed to have cast a strategic vote if whether
her expectations about the outcome of the election are considered
or not leads to a different prediction about which party she is
most likely to support. On that basis, we estimate that about 3%
of voters cast a strategic vote in the 1997 election.
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Validation of Time of Voting Decision Recall
Published in Public Opinion Quarterly, 65: 95-107
Patrick Fournier, André Blais, Richard Nadeau, Elisabeth
Gidengil, Neil Nevitte (2001)
Abstract:
This paper examines the validity of reported time of voting decision.
Previous studies have found that this recall question does not provide
reliable indicators of actual behavior. These studies focus on the
American electoral system. We present data from Canada. In the context
of a campaign which spans less than two months and where the alternatives
are clearly defined before the start of the campaign, reported time
of voting decision turns out to be an excellent predictor of the
stability and instability of vote choice between panel waves. Most
voters really do move from indecision to decision and from one choice
to their final decision at the time which they say they made up
their mind.
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The Correlates and Consequences of Anti-Partyism
in the 1997 Canadian Election
Published in Party Politics, 7: 491-513
Elisabeth Gidengil, André Blais, Neil Nevitte, Richard
Nadeau (2001)
Abstract:
This article examines why anti-party rhetoric resonates with some
citizens, but not with others, and how this affects their electoral
behaviour. The data are taken from the 1997 Canadian Election Study.
Social background characteristics turn out to have only a very modest
effect on anti-party sentiment. Political sophistication is associated
with a less critical view of political parties, while economic frustration
and perceived system deficiencies make for more negative attitudes,
but the key factor is issue alienation from the incumbent party.
This is also the most important factor in influencing how citizens
express their anti-party sentiment. Anti-partyism is more likely
to result in an 'anti-party' vote than in abstention. Those who
are more involved and more informed are especially likely to work
for change within the system.
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Perceptions of Party Competence in the 1997
Election
Published in Hugh Thorburn and Alan Whitehorn (eds.) Party Politics
in Canada 8th ed. Toronto: Prentice-Hall, p.413-430
Richard Nadeau, André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil, Neil Nevitte
(2001)
Abstract:
This chapter uses data from the Canadian Election Study to examine
Canadians’ perceptions about the parties’ competence
in dealing with a number of issues at the time of the 1997 federal
election. This analysis is of interest for two reasons. First, it
allows an assessment of how the arrival of two new parties on the
federal scene, namely the Reform Party and the Bloc Québécois,
modified these perceptions. Second, it provides a more systematic
examination of the effect of party image on Canadian electoral behaviour
than has been undertaken to date.
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Do People Have Feelings Towards Leaders About
Whom They Say They Know Nothing?
Published in Public Opinion Quarterly, 64: 452-463
André Blais, Neil Nevitte, Richard Nadeau, Elisabeth Gidengil
(2000)
Abstract:
Most people have feelings about leaders even if they say they know
nothing about them. When asked how they feel about these leaders,
people usually provide a rating and most of the time these ratings
are meaningful, in the sense that they have an independent effect
on their vote. At the same time, those who indicate they know nothing
about a leader appear to be less confident about their evaluations.
As a consequence, they attach less weight to these evaluations and
more to how they feel about the parties when deciding how to vote.
The practical implication is that it is useful to tap respondents'
subjective level of knowledge about the leaders, because leader
evaluations tend to have a smaller impact on the vote among those
who feel they know nothing about a leader. These findings are consistent
with the middle position taken by Zaller about non-opinion and non-attitudes.
The data indicate that the responses provided by those who say they
know nothing about a leader do not simply reflect random guessing.
At the same time, a respondent who says she knows nothing about
a leader conveys the message that her feelings towards that person
are particularly tentative.
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It's Unemployment, Stupid! Why Perceptions
About the Job Situation Hurt the Liberals in the 1997 Election
Published in Canadian Public Policy, 26: 77-94
Richard Nadeau, André Blais, Neil Nevitte, Elisabeth Gidengil
(2000)
Abstract:
The Liberals almost lost their parliamentary majority in June 1997.
This article argues that perceptions of the unemployment situation
hurt the Liberals and cost them the support of almost three percentage
points of votes. We examine the reasons why Canadians did not render
a more positive judgment on the job situation despite a decrease
of the official unemployment rate in Canada during the Liberal mandate.
The results of this study raise a number of questions about voters'
behaviour, about the diffusion and penetration of both general and
economic information within the electorate, about the criteria with
which voters use to judge governments, and on the incentives these
governments might have to manufacture political business cycles.
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Campaign Dynamics in the 1997 Canadian Election
Published in Canadian Public Policy 25: 197-205
André Blais, Richard Nadeau, Elisabeth Gidengil, Neil Nevitte
(1999)
Abstract:
The paper uses the 1997 Canadian Election Study (CES) to determine
whether there were significant dynamics in the 1997 Canadian election
and to provide an assessment of the two key events of the campaign:
the televised leader debates and the "Quebec" Reform ad.
The data indicate that both events had a substantial impact on vote
intentions but that the impact was only temporary. Their final effect
on the outcome of the election was negligible. The data also indicate
that, irrespective of these two events, Reform made some gains during
the campaign, mostly at the expense of the Liberals.
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Making Sense of Regional Voting in the 1997
Federal Election: Liberal and Reform Support Outside Quebec
Published in Canadian Journal of Political Science 32: 247-272
Elisabeth Gidengil, André Blais, Neil Nevitte, Richard
Nadeau (1999)
Abstract:
This article uses a regression decomposition approach to explore
the meaning of the gaps in Liberal support between Ontario, the
West and Atlantic Canada, as well as the gap in Reform support between
the West and Ontario. The analysis proceeds in two stages. The first
stage involves determining whether the regional vote gaps reflect
"true" regional differences or whether they can be explained
simply in terms of differences in the socio-demographic makeup of
the regions. Having ascertained that the gaps are not spurious,
the second stage of the analysis probes the beliefs and attitudes
that underlie them. It turns out that the gaps are driven not just
by differences in political orientations and beliefs from one region
to another, but also by more fundamental differences in basic political
priorities.
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